Russia Planning Hybrid Attacks on Baltic States and Poland, Latvian Intelligence Warns

Intelligence officials told Fox News on June 22 that they had observed signs Russia was readying hybrid attacks — including missiles, drones, and other actions — designed to send a message to NATO member states: stop supporting Ukraine, or face consequences on their own soil.

Despite the warning, Latvian officials stressed that a full-scale conventional war is not imminent. "Russia would need three to five years, even if the war in Ukraine ended today, to rebuild sufficient capabilities," intelligence officials said. "What worries us now are provocations — drones, missiles and other hybrid attacks."

Latvia's Constitution Protection Bureau has also reported that Russia intends to file a lawsuit against the Baltic states at the International Court of Justice, accusing them of discriminating against Russian and Russian-speaking populations. 

The bureau believes Moscow is using this legal campaign to build a narrative that could later serve to justify action against the Baltic states. The bureau further noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law in late May granting him authority to deploy armed forces to protect Russian citizens abroad — a move that echoes steps taken immediately before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Latvian intelligence officials expressed concern that Russian institutions may be telling Putin only what he wants to hear, a dynamic they warned could lead to "foolish and senseless decisions." Polish authorities have separately stated that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against NATO's eastern flank, carrying out killings, drone launches, cyberattacks, strikes on critical infrastructure, and the weaponization of migration against NATO member states.